Getting ahead of a drought

Drought forecasting technology helps prepare for future dry spells

It may be a project that’s being worked on at universities across Canada, but Rick Lawford doesn’t want to see it remain only in academic circles.

The project, which involves Lawford’s Drought Research Institute (DRI) as well as other research groups, is examining characteristics and patterns of prairie droughts, and working on more accurate ways to predict them.

“We need to make sure this isn’t another academic study just stuck on a shelf somewhere,” said Lawford.

“It’s something that could affect a lot of people.”

Using the prairie’s 1999-2004 drought as a basis, the project aims, through the use of computerized models, to predict future disasters and, while they can’t be prevented, provide those affected with advance warning so preparations can be made.

“The thing is, we can’t, at this stage, prevent a drought from happening. What we can do if we determine it’s coming is to be prepared for it,” said Lawford.

“If, for example, all the (water) levels in reservoirs are down to the lowest level and then a drought suddenly hits, it’s bad news. It’s bad news for Manitoba Hydro, it’s bad news for farmers...it’s bad news for everybody. If we know it’s coming, we can keep the levels in the reservoirs higher.”

Farmers, he said, can also prepare, if advance notice is given, by selecting crops that are better suited to drier conditions.

DRI, along with the Centre For Earth Observation Science – located in Winnipeg at the University of Manitoba – along with the project’s other partners, are also looking into groundwater and soil conditions as potential indicators for drought forecasting.

“We have very good, comprehensive information about the 1999-2004 drought,” said John Hanesiak of the Centre For Earth Sciences,” including satellite data and a range of other measures.

“Now we’re focused on how we can apply this knowledge and put it into context.”

Hanesiak said the shift from a three-year period of drought to a very wet year in 2005 is very important to the study, as it involves a series of experts trying to uncover the reasons for the change.

“This theme involves atmosphere specialists, ground water specialists, hydrology researchers and a number of others who are trying to pin down exactly what was going on with energy and water cycling over this time,” he said.

The models developed to predict future drought conditions were on display at the Drought Research Initiative Workshop, which was held in Winnipeg Jan. 11 to 13.

According to Lawford, the models aren’t perfect – there are still some discrepancies between computerized calculations and actual precipitation measurements – but so far, they’re the best way of predicting drought conditions.

The next step, he says, is to set up a network of potentially affected people who will get the word out if another drought is to occur.

“We, ourselves, will not be making public announcements about drought predictions, but we’re looking into developing partnerships and maybe creating a committee who will pass along the information uncovered by the research being done here to people like farmers, who will be affected by another drought.”

More information about DRI and its research can be found online at www.drinetwork.ca.